Зачем Навальному регионы

Навальный в автозаке

Еще несколько соображений по поводу так называемой забастовки избирателей, начатой 28 января по инициативе Алексея Навального. Самые молодые его сторонники (читай – школьники) скорее всего не помнят или слабо представляют события 2011-2012 годов, когда в России впервые была предпринята попытка цветного переворота, поэтому вряд ли способны указать на различия с аналогичной попыткой 2018 года. А различие представляется важным по нескольким причинам.

Для Навального расчистили политическую поляну

Во-первых, политическая поляна псевдо-оппозиции за минувшие шесть лет оказалась полностью зачищена под Навального. Об этом со дня смерти Бориса Немцова писали довольно много, но сейчас следует подчеркнуть данное обстоятельство особо. Ведь достаточно взглянуть на состав самого первого оргкомитета оппозиции, стихийно образовавшегося перед митингом 10 декабря 2011 года, чтобы увидеть отсутствие в нем Навального. Можно сказать, дескать, Навальный тогда находился под арестом, возможно потому и не был включен. Однако такое утверждение будет несправедливым хотя бы потому, что Сергей Удальцов тогда тоже был под арестом, но как видим, в списке он есть.

Кроме того, глядя из 2018-го в 2012-й год, когда завершились выборы в координационный совет оппозиции (см Итоги выборов в КС оппозиции) и определились самые главные оппозиционеры страны, становится понятно, что большинство из них просто растворились. Ну где, объясните писатель Быков, шахматист Каспаров и защитница зеленых лесов Чирикова? Понятно, что эти тараканы разбежались в стороны, уступив место Навальному. А как же их демократические идеалы?

У самых наивных от прочтения двух абзацев выше может сложиться впечатление, что, дескать, а Навальный-то молодец, выстоял под прессом Кремля! На самом деле освобождение поляны для Навального может указывать и на другое – что его «конкуренты» были устранены для того, чтобы получить большую предсказуемость и подконтрольность оппозиционных действий в России. Ну подумайте, управлять тем бедламом, который образовался перед выборами и во время выборов в координационный совет оппозиции или управлять отдельно взятой группой наивных дурачков под руководством Навального, что проще?

Главное отличие протестных акций 2011-2012 и 2018 года

Во-вторых, а какое самое главное отличие митингов прошлых лет и новых? Вроде бы лежит на поверхности, но не представляется очевидным – протесты перенеслись из Москвы в регионы России. Казалось бы, ну и что в этом особенного, тем более про необходимость подключать регионы белоленточная оппозиция спорила уже тогда. Вот одно из первых сообщений по поводу роли Москвы и регионов в акциях протеста. Геннадий Гудков — 24 ноября 2011 года.

Через месяц с небольшим тот же Гудков сообщает, что было принято решение поддерживать протесты в регионах:

Спустя две недели все еще до конца не определено. Гудков подбадривает читателей на тему того, когда же наконец оппозиция начнет протестовать в регионах.

Отметим, что на тот момент речь еще не шла о создании упомянутого координационного совета оппозиции. Что же изменилось за год? Оказывается, что на момент организации так называемого марша миллионов 15 сентября (больше чем через год) оппозиция все еще не определилась с участием регионов.

Оказывается лозунг «Путина в отставку!» не примут в регионах! Вот это поворот! (с)
Идем дальше, проходит еще примерно полгода и наступает ответственный момент — поднимается вопрос о представительствах КС в регионах.

Логику развития и борьбы внутри оппозиции за регионы мы примерно поняли. За два года протестов они так и не смогли определиться с участием регионов, а затем и необходимость отпала, так как избранный ими координационный совет разбежался в стороны. Как мы отметили выше, в сегменте уличного активизма остался только Навальный. И что же он сообщает нам в 2017 году перед тем как начать свою эпичную «президентскую кампанию»?

«Они долго говорили, что у оппозиции нет поддержки в регионах, и сейчас им больно смотреть на наши митинги. Как это объяснить самим себе?» — пишет Навальный о тех, кто якобы находится в Кремле и боится его встреч с избирателями в регионах.

Имеем право узнать, не слишком ли он загнул про то, что у оппозиции нет поддержки в регионах, учитывая что такую поддержку в 2012 году нельзя было «организовать технически»? В этом есть и лукавство, и попытка отскочить от своих товарищей по 2011-2012 году.

Теперь осталось ответить на вопрос в заголовке

Столь мучительная дискуссия в рядах оппозиции была совершенно не случайно. Ведь весны 2012 года в рядах оппозиции царила полная неразбериха, а потому вопрос о регионах не стоял так остро. По сути, тогда победила установка — бить по Москве, так как в Москве решается всё. Некоторого успеха белоленточники все же достигли, так как им удалось достичь большой численности акций. Но закрепить успех им не удалось, так как на концентрацию белоленточников был мощный ответ в виде концентрации на Поклонной.

Напомним, 4 февраля 2012 года в Москве прошел крупный «антиоранжевый» митинг на Поклонной горе, то есть против Навального, Гудкова и прочей шушеры. Каким бы он ни был по части организации, вся оппозиция была отброшена со своими идеями «снежной революции». По сути, на Москве в плане проведения митингов был поставлен крест, так как стало понятно, что простой численностью белоленточникам протест не перебить.

В 2017-2018 видим, что Навальный изменил подход — его сторонники активно работают в регионах. Если в этом направлении им удастся достичь похожего успеха, ответ в виде новой Поклонной будет не совсем адекватным, потребуется что-то мощнее и уже скоро. Очевидно, противниками России ставка делается на то, что ответ в регионах может оказаться слабее.

Данное обстоятельство нужно воспринимать как новый вызов для патриотической общественности. Навальный уже заявил, что не остановится на акциях 28 января. Значит и нам потребуется определенная активизация.

Оставайтесь на связи. Вместе победим!

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